Reported Profitability Improvement but Increasing Cash Pressure
Synthetic practice case. Fictional Cedar Vale Supply; no real organisation or personal data. All amounts are CU thousands. This is a simplified management-accounting dataset, not statutory financial statements. No facilitator solution appears here.
Your job
It is 2 October 2026. Management says improved profitability supports a further capital commitment. Prepare a source-backed cash and forecast challenge for the finance director. Payments, borrowing and investment approval remain human decisions.
C2-E1 — supplied quarter results
For this simplified exercise there are no interest, tax, FX, acquisitions, dividends, borrowings, disposals or other non-cash/profit-to-cash adjustments beyond those explicitly listed. Do not generalise that simplification to real companies.
C2-E2 — balance movements and cash
Q3 capital cash payments were 400. Other relevant operating balances are unchanged. Inventory records show opening 1,400 plus cost additions 4,400 less expensed cost 3,900 equals closing 1,900. The extract does not establish whether all stock is saleable.
C2-E3 — receivable ageing, same population
An account-level note says 120 within the oldest bucket is disputed. No approved credit note or collectability decision is provided. Sales says the dispute is “administrative”; collections has not obtained a written resolution.
C2-E4 — October cash forecast v4
Opening available cash is 170, excluding restricted cash. The forecast contains no new borrowing or use of restricted funds.
The final figure is a supplied model output to check, not an authoritative bank balance. The finance director's internal review floor is 100; it is not represented as a legal solvency test or bank covenant.
The week-2 collections include a 100 receipt from fictional account C-17. Sales expects week 2; a customer operations note says payment processing may move to week 4. There is no confirmed payment date. Treat a move to week 4 as a requested timing sensitivity, not a predicted outcome or probability.
C2-E5 — decisions and assertions
Management: “Profit grew 50%, so the cash reduction is entirely capex and we can commit another 150 to equipment in November.”
Operations: “Inventory rose to support growth, but slow-moving stock data are incomplete.”
Treasury: “Do not use the restricted 50. We need an agreed action if available cash falls below the internal floor.”
November's proposed equipment commitment is absent from the October forecast. No approved financing action, deferral agreement or supplier payment change is supplied.
Work to produce
- Reconcile the Q3 change in total cash using profit, depreciation, working capital and capex. Explain what the arithmetic does and does not establish.
- Review ageing and inventory evidence, distinguishing growth from timing and collectability uncertainty.
- Recalculate forecast v4. Produce the C-17 timing sensitivity using the same payment assumptions and identify affected weeks.
- Challenge the capital-commitment assertion without automatically approving or rejecting the investment on incomplete evidence.
- Record assumptions, alternative explanations, missing evidence and human decisions in the Forecast, Cash and Financial Model Assumption Register. Prepare qualified commentary using the Financial Performance Commentary Review Record.
No conclusion of insolvency, misconduct or universal financial compliance follows from this exercise. Do not invent collection probabilities or assume management can defer obligations without authority.